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Title: Nvidia’s Jensen Huang on an AI Bubble, Trump, and the Arms Race with China
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This is for certain. Everybody's jobs
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will change as a result of AI. Some jobs
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will disappear. Obviously, every single
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industrial revolution, some jobs are
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just gone and but a whole bunch of new
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jobs are created. Everybody will have to
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use AI because if you don't use AI,
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you're going to lose your job to
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somebody who does. Time has named the
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architects of AI as the 2025 person of
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the year. One of those architects is
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Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, which
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is now the world's most valuable
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company. Nvidia has a near monopoly on
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the supply of GPUs. The advanced
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computer chips powering the AI boom
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that's transforming the planet. The
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industry's rapid growth has tech leaders
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proclaiming a new era of abundance while
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skeptics warn of a looming financial
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bubble. In November, I went to speak
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with Wang at Nvidia's Bay Area
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headquarters. Google CEO Sundar Pachai
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said this week
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>> uh that there were elements of
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irrationality in the stock market
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>> around AI right now.
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>> Do you agree with him? there's always
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some irrationality somewhere in the
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stock market. I think that that's a fair
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thing to say. Um I would say though the
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part that most people miss is that
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underneath the foundation of chat bots
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and agentic AI is a transformation of
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computing from general purpose to
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accelerated computing. When do you then
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then gauge um uh the the investments
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incremental on top of that relative to
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the opportunity of generative AI or
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agentic AI AGI on top of that then
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you'll come to the conclusion in fact
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it's very modest it's still significant
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but it's modest in in in relative to the
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overall computing market.
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>> So you're uh somewhere between four and
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five trillion dollar company right now.
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a lot of that cash flow that you're
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bringing in as revenue
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>> uh you're investing in other companies
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in the space. Some people
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>> in the the world of analysts and the
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stock market are saying this creates a
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degree of circularity. Uh there's vendor
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financing here, it could create extra
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systemic risk uh if for example
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companies like OpenAI which is not
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profitable fails to meet uh the
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commitments that it's making to buy data
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centers mostly full of your chips. Are
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you concerned that there is a a growing
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structural risk related to all of those
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things?
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>> Not because of this reason. Um
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>> for any other reason.
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>> Well, if there are other reasons that we
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can talk about, but not for this, you
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know, not for this particular reason.
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Let me tell you why. Every single
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transaction we do, every single purchase
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order that we take, we still go back to
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first principles and we ask ourselves,
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do you really have the demand for it?
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Because if you don't have the demand for
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it, somebody else has demand for it. The
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reason why we invest is several reasons.
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One is to expand our ecosystem. If you
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look at the investments that that we
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will likely make and have made up to now
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and you compare it to the revenues that
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we have that we're generating, it's in
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the single low single digits. And so
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that kind of tells you how could low
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single digits create circularity. And
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then very importantly, this is the last
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reason. These are consequential
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companies, most important companies of
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our time. And we have the opportunity to
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be a have a front seat, front row seat
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partnership with them. We kind of also
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have, if you will, inside information
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about how successful they're doing. And
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so the opportunity to invest in them,
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it's going to turn out to be a great
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investment.
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>> I'd love to move on to talking about the
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year that you've had in the world of
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politics and policy. M
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>> um the year begins with Trump entering
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the Oval Office.
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>> Uh I understand that your first meeting
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with him ever was that month in January.
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>> Mhm.
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>> Um and since then
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>> you've traveled the world with him, he's
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referred to you as a close friend and a
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great leader.
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>> And I'm curious, having spent so much
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time with him up close this year,
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>> what's something that you've learned
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about his approach to AI and the way
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that he does business?
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Um, let's see. I I guess maybe I'll say
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some things that that um
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isn't evident um watching or or reading
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about President Trump on on TV or news.
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Uh first of all, he's an extraordinarily
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good listener.
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U
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he's he's almost I think everything I've
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ever said to him, he's remembered. Uh he
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is an incredibly hard worker.
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his work ethic. He starts as early as
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anybody else and oftentimes
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uh we'll be talking about things late in
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the night and I'm kind of ready for bed
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and he's he would have gone for several
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more hours and so so I I've never met
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anybody with such incredible work ethic
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and so he's you know he it just came
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from everything that he's done he's
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worked hard his life his whole life he
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works seven days a week as far as I can
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tell um there is no you
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after work spend time with doing
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something else. He's just working the
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whole time. And so these two qualities
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are are really impressive and I wouldn't
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I wouldn't have have um guessed those
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two two qualities, but he's excellent
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listener. He's incredible work ethic and
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he's super smart.
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>> In the time that you spent in and around
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the Trump administration and traveling
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the world this year, is there an
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important moment that you experienced
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that the world doesn't know about yet,
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but that you think it should? The world
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is um
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unaware of how deeply dependent
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United States and China are to each
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other.
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uh the the the ideas that that uh
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floated around about United States
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decoupling from China I think is is is
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is
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flawed and our dependency on each other
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is quite significant and it's deeper
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than people think and every single time
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we press it we realize what else we're
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dependent on each other on that this
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will be the most consequential
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relationship in the next century if this
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is so um I I think that we we really
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ought to recognize that managing the
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relationship and not causing conflict is
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the most important thing we could do.
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And so, uh, negotiations,
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communications, uh, compromise, um, and
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just the continuous process of doing
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that is essential. And I think the
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current administration has demonstrated
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incredible wisdom in engaging
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whether it's he hexath in uh uh with uh
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the military uh whether it's uh bessent
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and treasury uh President Trump himself
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uh ambassador Greer all of them
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representing us engaging deeply in
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conversations there uh deeply wise
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deeply wise and I think it'll
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demonstrate that a century from
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that impactful change versus isolation
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and and avoidance and uh I think that's
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important. I think the second thing that
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that I would say that the world didn't
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realize is how deeply dependent we are
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in the AI industry on the brilliant
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students and the brilliant scientists of
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China. 50% of the world's AI researchers
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are from China. Their companies in China
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wants China to win. I think that's
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terrific. And I think the Chinese want
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China to win. I think that's terrific.
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We want America to win and we can have a
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healthy competition while we compete,
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compete fairly and collaborate at the
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same time. But I think the taking it
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emotionally too far from that um results
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in in uh consequences and relationships
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that are that are just harder to manage.
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you've been still unable to ship uh at
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the beginning of the administration your
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H20 chip to China and had argued uh
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successfully ultimately to the Trump
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administration for them to remove that
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export control. However, shortly after
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that uh commerce secretary Howard Lutnik
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said that the goal of American chip
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policy in that regard was to get China
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addicted to US chips. Um and that after
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that China turned around and said
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actually no we don't we don't want the
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H20 and since then you've uh publicly
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declared that you have no uh China
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revenue anymore. What was your response
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to to Lot's comments there?
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Well, you know um
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it's unfortunate. Uh I I would say I
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would say um
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so first of all it's really important to
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understand what AI is. AI is not just a
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model. What AI what AI is is a full
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stack of reinvention of every single
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layer of the technology stack. AI is
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about energy. That's the reason why
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we're talking about energy all the time.
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When President Trump came into office
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and he was pro- energy growth. If it
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wasn't because of his posture on energy
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growth, the United States would have
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been in a very bad way. We would have
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had no energy, no incremental energy
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necessary to grow this incredibly
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important industry. So his growth
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posture, his grow energy growth policy
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is incredibly helpful. But we have to
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win every other layer as well. The next
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layer is chips. The layer after that is
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infrastructure, cloud services. the liar
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after that um large language models or
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AI models and of course very importantly
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AI applications. The United States has
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if we if we hope to take advantage of
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this next industrial revolution and this
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will be the largest industrial
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revolution of all of the industrial
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revolutions. And so every layer of that
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stack we must be determined to win. But
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if we allow all of the layers
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to only be as successful as the least
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successful layer, then United States
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will fall behind. No doubt. Our belief
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and and what I've explained is that in
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the layer of chips, the single most
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important thing is to make sure that
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every single model in the world runs on
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American techstack and that the American
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tech stack is everywhere in the world.
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So that you know American text stack
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becomes if you will the global standard.
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There's a belief that somehow if we
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provided American chips to uh foreign
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foreign countries and specifically China
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that the Chinese military would be
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building their military and building um
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airplanes and
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aircraft carriers using American chips.
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Well, first of all, they have plenty of
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their own chips and their companies are
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formidable. The idea that China does not
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have technology industry we now know is
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lunacy and we all the idea that China is
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not able to manufacture would suggest
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somebody is had their head deeply in the
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sand. The ability for us to engage the
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China market, compete freely there, earn
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our business, earn our business is great
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for um great for America. It's great for
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the American people. It allows us to uh
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generate revenues for the United States.
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And as you know, the country that is
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most secure, has the mightiest military
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is because it's also the wealthiest
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country. And so we want America to be
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the wealthiest country so that we can
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fund the mightiest military. And I I
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think that that is our way of
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contributing to national security.
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>> But this is a tight ripe that you're
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walking right because you saying this
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precisely what China wants is to have
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its own semiconductor.
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>> I know it
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>> industry. I know it.
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>> So in a way it wasn't Lutnik only just
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kind of saying the quiet part out.
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>> You're exactly right. In a lot of ways,
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um, we realize that that, uh, on the one
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hand, uh, we would like to limit
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American technology to China. On the
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other hand, we would like to participate
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in their market. It is exactly the
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opposite for them. They would like their
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Chinese companies to have access to the
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best technology so that different layers
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of the AI stack can flourish. Um, and it
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gives while it gives their local
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technology companies an opportunity to
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catch up, they would like to access
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American technology, but they would also
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like to dominate their own market. And
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so these two ideas are are true in both
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countries. And so the the the best
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answer the best answer uh is to let let
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the system work itself out. I think the
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uh we need a nuanced answer, nuanced
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policy where uh America has American
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companies have access to the most
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advanced technology, American
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technology. Meanwhile, um allowing
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American companies to go participate in
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the world's second largest market. Since
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I spoke with Hang, President Trump said
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the US would allow Nvidia to sell H200
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chips to China with the government
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collecting a 25% cut of the sales. You
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mentioned decoupling there and how the
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two superpowers are still very dependent
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on one another, but in your industry,
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chipm which is historically very highly
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concentrated in Taiwan, uh there is
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actually a decoupling going on. You uh
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this last month, October, uh the first
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Blackwell ship rolled off a production
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line from an Arizona factory. Uh and
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this is a momentous occasion uh because
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Taiwan is obviously a geopolitical
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>> we're building the most advanced ship in
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the world here in America for the very
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first time.
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>> But doesn't that explicitly
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cause a decoupling? I mean, China is
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building its own domestic semiconductor
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industry. The US is now building its own
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domestic fabrication uh of of
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semiconductors.
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uh that longtime strategic balance of
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Taiwan being this place where you know
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it's stuck in the middle almost uh too
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expensive for China to invade because of
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all of these reasons. Isn't is invasion
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becoming more likely because of this
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this decoupling?
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>> Invasion would any conflict? Um you I
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I've not heard of of of any specific
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plans but any conflict um should be
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should be reduced. And so we shouldn't
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play a role in in uh uh increasing
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conflict. Um and uh you know I think I
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think it's very clear that that
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President Trump is is the is a president
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of peace and and seeks out for peace.
(00:14:42)
With respect to with respect to
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semiconductor manufacturing I think it's
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very clear that what we as we as the
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industry grows having resilience is
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important.
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We don't need to decouple. We need to
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enhance resilience. And so the ability
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to manufacture in multiple sites in
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multiple continents for whether for for
(00:15:04)
you know whether electricity reasons or
(00:15:07)
you know weather reasons or earthquake
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reasons whatever the reasons are um
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having having diversity and redundancy
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in the most critical supply chain it's
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just wise. Um, we will depend on Taiwan
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to manufacture
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chips and electronics for decades to
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come. Their people, their culture, um,
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just their network of ecosystems and
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companies that are built around each
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other, the efficiency of that of that of
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that island and building electronics and
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chips is unheard of, unbelievable.
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Uh, it's going to take decades to
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replicate that. The Chinese government
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has instructed its army to be ready by
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2027 to invade the island. Your policy
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that you advocate of uh allowing Nvidia
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chips to be sold to China. Do you think
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that does anything to the risk of that
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happening? Does it make it more likely,
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less likely, or no change?
(00:16:04)
>> Less likely.
(00:16:06)
>> Why?
(00:16:06)
>> Um the reason for for that is very
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clear. never never never push an
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adversary or anyone uh to the wall. I it
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is just it's wisdom uh to ensure that we
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we don't uh elevate the tension of any
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relationship
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and um when you take things to an
(00:16:27)
extreme for example all or nothing uh
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those extremes are are um causes causes
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um uh reflexes and um uh outcomes that
(00:16:38)
are that are unexpected. And so I I
(00:16:43)
think the uh moderation
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moderation uh having a a nuanced
(00:16:49)
strategy where United States especially
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you know the technology is built here in
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the United States and and is an American
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company America has every right to make
(00:16:57)
ensure that American companies and
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America has the best and the most we
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have every right and we do that we
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ensure that and and that's a natural way
(00:17:05)
of how we do business but also to make
(00:17:07)
available to our technology so that we
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can participate and compete compete in
(00:17:12)
the global market so that the United
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States could have the largest possible
(00:17:16)
technology footprint. That's that's a
(00:17:18)
wise thing to do. And so I think it's in
(00:17:21)
our interest to do that. I think it's in
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their interest um with all due respect
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that Nvidia's technology is quite
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advanced and we could be helpful and uh
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to be in service of the companies the
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technology companies in China and um uh
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and we'd appreciate the opportunity to
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come compete and go earn our
(00:17:41)
opportunities there. And so to to that
(00:17:44)
extent um and we don't we don't cause uh
(00:17:48)
disruptions
(00:17:50)
or um uh cause panic or you know
(00:17:53)
whatever whatever the the emotional
(00:17:55)
feelings are. Of course it'll keep the
(00:17:57)
the tension low and it'll keep the the
(00:17:59)
uh the the relationship you know
(00:18:01)
balanced.
(00:18:02)
>> I want to talk about Saudi Arabia as
(00:18:03)
well because there are similar dynamics
(00:18:04)
at play there. Um, so in May you
(00:18:07)
traveled to Saudi Arabia with President
(00:18:09)
Trump.
(00:18:10)
>> Uh, and there there were some major
(00:18:11)
deals announced, including uh large
(00:18:14)
shipments of NVIDIA chips uh to Saudi AI
(00:18:17)
companies. Under the Biden
(00:18:19)
administration, those chip exports had
(00:18:21)
been blocked essentially because of
(00:18:23)
concerns that uh Saudi Arabian companies
(00:18:26)
were close to Chinese companies and that
(00:18:28)
the chips could make their way uh via
(00:18:30)
the Gulf to China. Um, can you describe
(00:18:33)
the role that you played getting the
(00:18:36)
Trump administration to rethink that
(00:18:39)
policy?
(00:18:40)
>> The argument goes like this.
(00:18:44)
AI will be AI is impactful and
(00:18:46)
consequential for every single company
(00:18:48)
and every industry and every nation and
(00:18:52)
the Middle East will absolutely
(00:18:56)
develop AI capability for their
(00:18:59)
ecosystem. Would we like the Middle East
(00:19:01)
to be built on the American tech stack
(00:19:03)
or would we like the Middle East to be
(00:19:05)
built on somebody else's tech stack?
(00:19:07)
That's really the simple question. And
(00:19:09)
the idea of conceding
(00:19:12)
technology leadership, the idea of
(00:19:14)
conceding a massive market um made no
(00:19:19)
sense to President Trump.
(00:19:22)
And for what reason?
(00:19:25)
Whatever the reasons of the previous
(00:19:27)
administration for conceding, for
(00:19:30)
forfeiting
(00:19:31)
um uh tens of billions, hundreds of
(00:19:34)
billions of dollars of market
(00:19:35)
opportunity uh to another country when
(00:19:38)
we don't have to, when we have the
(00:19:40)
world's best technology, forfeiting just
(00:19:43)
doesn't make sense to President Trump.
(00:19:46)
>> You just got back from DC where uh the
(00:19:49)
Saudi uh crown prince NBS was in town. M
(00:19:52)
>> you attended a dinner. Um what did you
(00:19:55)
talk about?
(00:19:57)
>> He was very happy um with uh uh the
(00:20:00)
licenses of uh the GPUs, Nvidia GPUs for
(00:20:04)
for the KSA. Um he was uh uh very
(00:20:08)
complimentary of the work that we've
(00:20:09)
been doing. uh you know of course of
(00:20:12)
course his royal highness is both a avid
(00:20:16)
gamer and and his home uh is populated
(00:20:20)
with Nvidia GeForce. He has a he has a a
(00:20:24)
esports um uh you know room uh with with
(00:20:29)
tens of PCs a game the highest end
(00:20:32)
gaming PCs and underneath the desk is
(00:20:35)
all GeForce and so uh he he's a big fan
(00:20:38)
of GeForce. He's been a customer of
(00:20:39)
GeForce for a very long time and uh and
(00:20:42)
he's he's uh really delighted by the
(00:20:43)
partnership that we have in AI and and
(00:20:45)
grateful for everything that we've done
(00:20:47)
to help him uh help him uh get to this
(00:20:49)
point and so he was just very very
(00:20:51)
happy. I want to switch gears now to
(00:20:53)
talk about uh the social impacts of AI.
(00:20:56)
Um this is a technology that has the
(00:21:00)
potential to automate many aspects of
(00:21:02)
human labor very soon. And I'm curious
(00:21:05)
the degree to which you feel a
(00:21:09)
responsibility for making that
(00:21:10)
transition go well.
(00:21:11)
>> What AI will do is to make tasks that we
(00:21:15)
do in our job more efficient. Our job is
(00:21:19)
not to wrangle a spreadsheet. Our job is
(00:21:22)
not to type into a keyboard. Our job is
(00:21:24)
generally more meaningful than that. I'm
(00:21:27)
fairly confident that AI will drive
(00:21:29)
productivity, revenue growth, and
(00:21:31)
therefore more hiring. There's a belief
(00:21:33)
that the world's GDP is somehow limited
(00:21:36)
at a hundred trillion dollars.
(00:21:39)
Well, what's likely to happen is AI is
(00:21:41)
going to cause that hundred trillion to
(00:21:43)
become $200 trillion, $300 trillion,
(00:21:46)
$500 trillion. There's no fundamental
(00:21:48)
limit to the size of a GDP.
(00:21:52)
And so, and the the number of people in
(00:21:55)
the world that is participating in this
(00:21:57)
GDP and the hundred trillion dollar GDP
(00:21:59)
GDP is actually quite small. And so what
(00:22:02)
if we brought the rest of the world, the
(00:22:04)
rest of society, the rest of the world's
(00:22:06)
population, empower them with AI, give
(00:22:09)
them the opportunity to participate in
(00:22:10)
the GDP and cause this GDP to quintuple.
(00:22:15)
I think that's a very likely outcome and
(00:22:18)
it's very likely that companies will
(00:22:20)
become more prosperous. But it's for
(00:22:22)
certain, this is for certain.
(00:22:25)
Everybody's jobs will change as a result
(00:22:28)
of AI. Some jobs will disappear.
(00:22:30)
Obviously, every single industrial
(00:22:32)
revolution, some jobs are just gone. And
(00:22:34)
but a whole bunch of new jobs are
(00:22:36)
created. Everybody will have to use AI
(00:22:38)
because if you don't use AI, you're
(00:22:39)
going to lose your job to somebody who
(00:22:41)
does.
(00:22:41)
>> Maybe my final question. Uh Nvidia is
(00:22:45)
Latin for envy.
(00:22:48)
>> It feels like you're on top of the world
(00:22:49)
right now. Is there anything you're
(00:22:50)
envious of?
(00:22:51)
>> You know, as I'm reflecting on I have a
(00:22:52)
pretty great life. I have an incredible
(00:22:54)
family. I've known my wife since I was
(00:22:56)
17. Um, I've got two amazing kids, 34
(00:23:00)
and 35. Uh, although they didn't start
(00:23:03)
out working at NVIDIA, both of them work
(00:23:05)
at NVIDIA today. And and to be able to
(00:23:08)
work hard and work hard with your kids
(00:23:10)
on very important things, and watch them
(00:23:13)
come up with with incredible ideas,
(00:23:15)
unique ideas, and do things that you
(00:23:17)
never knew you could do yourself. Um, to
(00:23:20)
watch him do that and um is it just
(00:23:23)
brings me enormous joy. I obviously have
(00:23:26)
a great company to to to be part of. Uh
(00:23:29)
we're we're uh building the most
(00:23:31)
impactful technology the world's ever
(00:23:33)
known. Uh to be at the center of that is
(00:23:35)
a great privilege and a great
(00:23:36)
responsibility and of course comes with
(00:23:38)
a great joy. And um uh and I have the
(00:23:42)
support of of uh 40,000 employees. We
(00:23:45)
have incredible retention. I've worked
(00:23:47)
with many of them multiple decades. And
(00:23:49)
uh I've got two great dogs, you know,
(00:23:53)
and and
(00:23:54)
>> most importantly,
(00:23:55)
>> yeah, I've got two great dogs. They both
(00:23:57)
had their ultrasound today. They're
(00:23:59)
apparently quite healthy. Uh you know,
(00:24:01)
Lori takes incredible care of them and
(00:24:03)
they're they're super fit. I Let's see
(00:24:06)
what else can I think of, you know? Uh I
(00:24:08)
I have access to uh to friends and and
(00:24:12)
partners all over the world. I get to
(00:24:14)
travel. Um I get to go to night markets.
(00:24:17)
I get to enjoy fried chicken in Korea. I
(00:24:20)
mean, what what else does anybody want,
(00:24:22)
you know? I think this is this is
(00:24:24)
actually I would say for for any human,
(00:24:26)
this would be a dream come true.
