Introduction to Comparative Politics – Is there a Grand Theory of Political Science? (YouTube Video Transcript)

(00:00:00) Your YouTube transcript will appear here (00:00:00) [Music] (00:00:27) this brings us what about out then we (00:00:30) leave the rest of democracy for (00:00:32) Wednesday and in Monday (00:00:35) purpose of the we are trading is to sort (00:00:38) of highlight the quest for coming up (00:00:42) with a greater theory of things yeah (00:00:44) theory of everything now grand theory is (00:00:49) by itself just simply a term that social (00:00:53) scientists like to use to kind of (00:00:56) utilize as the sink one on theory for (00:01:00) explaining everything there are (00:01:03) different theories that go into great (00:01:05) theory a great theory is sort of like an (00:01:07) overarching thing what exactly is the (00:01:10) most popular attempts at grand theory (00:01:13) this is where we begin to me in the (00:01:16) beginning was the word and the word was (00:01:20) modernization and modernization was with (00:01:23) political science whisper to decide okay (00:01:29) when we begin in the beginning was (00:01:31) modernization modernization theory has (00:01:35) been really one of the cornerstones not (00:01:39) only of comparative politics but (00:01:42) theories of democracy and good (00:01:43) governance and series of democratic (00:01:47) transition and if you really want to get (00:01:50) even more specific about where does it (00:01:52) all begin there are very few articles (00:01:56) that have been written that in the (00:01:58) political science field that have been (00:02:00) regarded with such awe reverence and (00:02:04) head-scratching as usually the zoo come (00:02:08) together as Seymour Lauren lips ex (00:02:11) magnum opus some social requisites of (00:02:15) democracy which was published in the (00:02:18) night (00:02:18) 15 edition of the american political (00:02:21) science review the apsr is the major (00:02:25) major major journal of political science (00:02:28) research and it's sort of understood (00:02:31) that if you get published in the 80s are (00:02:32) you're going places in poli-sci downside (00:02:35) is that nobody agrees the areas they (00:02:38) said they'd be like lucky hey there your (00:02:40) goals can't publish for an audience of (00:02:42) nobody but you know yeah you guys are (00:02:44) gonna miss out not to not the 80s are (00:02:47) back then Lipset article is very very (00:02:49) important for a number of reasons one of (00:02:52) which that listen articles generated (00:02:54) more let's say additional studies more (00:02:58) enquiries more research agendas than (00:03:01) pretty much any article any study since (00:03:05) the only other article the only other (00:03:08) study that maybe gives lip sex article a (00:03:12) run for its money is the famous infamous (00:03:15) infamously famous and famously infamous (00:03:18) clash of civilizations by state London (00:03:21) by the way how many of you have heard of (00:03:23) Sam Huntington's clash of civilizations (00:03:25) you were high politics and culture class (00:03:27) and ethics okay the pumpkins article was (00:03:30) published in the early 90s and Lipsett (00:03:33) article was published beginning of the (00:03:35) fifties but had already been seen as (00:03:39) veritable gospel in the decade prior (00:03:44) what exactly is modernization theory the (00:03:48) TLDR version of it is that the more (00:03:52) modernized a country is the more likely (00:03:58) the country is to develop democracy (00:04:02) Eclipse its article which is about forty (00:04:05) two things faculty says (00:04:09) modernization Needham's models (00:04:12) democracies are modern countries they (00:04:15) are developed countries they a half they (00:04:17) are countries with some type of (00:04:19) industrial economics (00:04:20) system they embody the principles of (00:04:25) market capitalism and most importantly (00:04:29) this is not the first person to coin (00:04:31) this but this point was pretty (00:04:32) monotonous there's a certain is a (00:04:34) certain segment of society that is (00:04:37) absolutely quite a certain a certain (00:04:40) economic place it's absolutely vital for (00:04:43) a democracy to madness (00:04:45) what is this ultimately so important (00:04:50) economic place in the middle place (00:04:55) absolutely why the middle s what makes (00:04:59) middle class somewhat anymore for (00:05:01) fostering democracy why not the other (00:05:03) places (00:05:04) why not the lower classes makes the (00:05:08) middle class so important okay so this (00:05:11) actually interesting thing this is (00:05:12) something that really describes some of (00:05:15) the foundations of real structural (00:05:17) democratic literature to which slip set (00:05:21) is including Robert Dahl has included (00:05:23) bearings more is included among others (00:05:26) and the explanation is very aptly as (00:05:29) follows the middle class has a certain (00:05:32) degree of political power and they use (00:05:35) that power as a way of safeguarding a (00:05:39) number of traditions the middle class (00:05:43) comes to power through a market economy (00:05:47) the middle class are a certain type of (00:05:50) wage earners they earned their money (00:05:53) they earned their fortune not through (00:05:55) inheritance not through titles but (00:05:59) through generating income through (00:06:01) industry through Comus through (00:06:03) businesses and in that regard they rely (00:06:07) on a bi-weekly paycheck and it's a very (00:06:11) simple thing as long as I get paid I (00:06:13) don't write the middle class are those (00:06:17) people that answer in some political (00:06:19) debates and create safeguards for not (00:06:26) only their earnings but also to ensure (00:06:29) that the state's relies upon (00:06:32) a constant flow of incoming money (00:06:35) through them and we call this as what (00:06:37) taxes that go towards providing state (00:06:41) services well we just want to hoard all (00:06:43) to themselves in the pork well sacks but (00:06:46) 1 (00:06:47) no money no once the middle class (00:06:50) therefore are those that invest in the (00:06:52) states they invest in roads in hospitals (00:06:55) in schools they invest in higher (00:06:58) education they are skilled labor they (00:07:02) are an educated class they are a (00:07:04) literate class they do not hold (00:07:08) aristocratic titles and they don't have (00:07:12) vast tracts of land that they need to (00:07:14) simply live on no their wage earners and (00:07:17) as such they are the ones that whether (00:07:22) they know it or not are churning the (00:07:24) gears of modernization and development (00:07:26) so let's say effectively says the end (00:07:29) results is clear look at a country that (00:07:32) has a developed economic system (00:07:33) developed industry system a develop (00:07:35) education system a develop civil society (00:07:38) all of these things are indicative of (00:07:40) the idea that there isn't enough place (00:07:42) and as such the country is modern and (00:07:45) more often than not the country is (00:07:47) democratic rich countries are democratic (00:07:50) more countries are not the countries (00:07:53) that are democratic are small and they (00:07:56) tend to be gravitated in the developed (00:07:58) part of the world by the way when we're (00:07:59) talking about a monomakh the dirty reads (00:08:01) democracy which countries are which (00:08:03) countries do you think Lipsett as a box (00:08:07) Great Britain United States France (00:08:13) what's the latest (00:08:18) anyway on a good day West Germany very (00:08:23) good Luxembourg Belgium the Netherlands (00:08:28) Scandinavian countries Canada Australia (00:08:32) and New Zealand (00:08:33) he had remember is a nineteen fifties so (00:08:36) there are still government's there are (00:08:40) so many colonies that are counter to (00:08:42) democracy this communism and there's (00:08:44) various forms of dictatorship trade you (00:08:47) from tribalism to by God kind of the (00:08:50) snowpacks (00:08:50) okay the other standing here is look it (00:08:54) is a nineteen fifties so he is looking (00:08:57) at for relation he is saying I'm looking (00:09:00) at the democracies around the world and (00:09:01) I see the same thing to develop develop (00:09:03) develop develop develop good for you (00:09:05) Protestant Reformation good for you (00:09:07) rocks that work out okay now this (00:09:11) becomes docile this is like oh my god (00:09:16) this is the best thing ever okay and (00:09:19) this is you know kind of like read into (00:09:21) all the graduates ten dollars for a new (00:09:24) generation of political scientists that (00:09:26) are going to school around this time and (00:09:28) they're kind of learning the ropes (00:09:29) because we remember comparative politics (00:09:32) certain apps has comparative political (00:09:34) systems in which countries are we really (00:09:37) going to study again we're talking about (00:09:40) the 40s and 50s which countries actually (00:09:42) have to meld the political system (00:09:43) married ones of the dissension and only (00:09:45) that they happen to be democratic now (00:09:47) there are countries out there that are (00:09:50) developed but they're not democratic (00:09:52) Soviet Union for one China for another (00:09:57) by the way Japan is also thrown into the (00:09:59) exclusive club okay here's the thing (00:10:03) after a while you kind of saturate the (00:10:05) field by looking at the same countries (00:10:07) and there's always something to the (00:10:08) right of that great work there's always (00:10:09) something right about (00:10:10) I'd say there's a whole wider world out (00:10:12) thing and by the 1950s there's a major (00:10:16) global event that's happening (00:10:18) decolonization hey British Empire it's (00:10:23) quite possibly one of the only empires (00:10:25) in history soon come and go gracefully (00:10:28) empires don't go racing they gotta go (00:10:31) kicking the screen or they just you know (00:10:33) fight to the last man to the you know to (00:10:35) the invade anonymous whatever redbrick (00:10:37) was like oh the greatest empire the (00:10:39) world ad no well that was fun Dell (00:10:41) computers thank you and so the British (00:10:44) Empire is breaking up the French Empire (00:10:46) goes kicking the screen the Belgian (00:10:50) Empire yes Belgium actually have columns (00:10:52) believe thank Portugal Spain the Dutch (00:10:56) and the rest which now opens up pretty (00:11:00) much most of Africa the Middle East (00:11:04) Southeast Asia and Latin America and (00:11:09) that the only region of the world was (00:11:10) closed off still was Eastern Europe and (00:11:13) why because of Soviet are you just gonna (00:11:16) go the rest of the world basically open (00:11:19) up that here was the $64,000 question (00:11:22) within for the signs of the time okay (00:11:26) of all the countries that are now coming (00:11:29) on to that Ghana South Korea Nigeria (00:11:34) India Pakistan Indonesia you know you (00:11:38) name which ones are likely to come (00:11:41) democratic and which ones are not using (00:11:45) what you've learned in your seminars (00:11:48) about modernization theory so these grad (00:11:52) students they go through all their (00:11:53) classes they do all their papers and (00:11:55) when it's time for them to write their (00:11:57) PhDs they are sent out into the world on (00:12:00) their sodium (00:12:01) things and they're set to or any wanted (00:12:03) to Latin America Africa came with the (00:12:05) idea of come back in a year or two with (00:12:08) your highness (00:12:09) which countries are likely to transition (00:12:11) and which ones are not (00:12:16) and I hate to be the bearer of bad news (00:12:20) but two to five years later when these (00:12:24) grad students were coming back and (00:12:25) writing their dissertations 90% of the (00:12:27) country's under study we're given a (00:12:30) negative or at best inconclusive rating (00:12:34) inappropriate for democracy not likely (00:12:37) to develop no sense of modernity (00:12:40) whatsoever you can kind of see where I'm (00:12:43) going with this right India Israel (00:12:46) Turkey Japan after the Second World War (00:12:49) right they all get passes because what (00:12:53) they do is they either abandon (00:12:57) pre-existing cultural traits and (00:13:00) patterns or modern Western patterns of (00:13:03) developments or they somehow find a way (00:13:07) of making the to coexist in almost all (00:13:11) other countries the answer was (00:13:13) inconclusive or negatives now at some (00:13:19) point you have to think to yourself okay (00:13:21) in 90% of the countries on the research (00:13:23) came back negative (00:13:26) it's the world that's screwed up or (00:13:30) perhaps this is something that social (00:13:32) scientists in general and political (00:13:35) scientists in particular paints to (00:13:37) acknowledge truth or maybe my theory (00:13:41) isn't entirely correct that political (00:13:45) sciences will basically go through no (00:13:48) efforts will go to no ends to defend (00:13:51) their theories another house (00:13:53) it is and so instead of realizing hey (00:13:56) you know if maybe 90% of the country's (00:13:58) coming back inconclusive means that your (00:14:00) theory is kind of wrong no no no my (00:14:03) theory cannot do all kind of political (00:14:04) scientists okay Alex makes fun of my (00:14:06) into discipline we are very stubborn (00:14:10) individuals but it was doing a lot of (00:14:13) people by the sixties by the seventies (00:14:17) that you know perhaps modernization (00:14:21) theory is asking things or looking for (00:14:26) criteria that aren't so much decision (00:14:30) but to simply don't exist that is that (00:14:33) make the country deficient or does that (00:14:37) make your theory somehow biased now in (00:14:43) the we are an article he mentions Peter (00:14:45) which who among other things (00:14:48) Peter winch and Alastair McIntyre into (00:14:50) to social scientists that made their (00:14:53) name by basically critiquing everything (00:14:55) and everyone in the discipline and in (00:14:57) which sort of said or sort of all (00:15:00) candidates in the reading that perhaps (00:15:01) perhaps this perhaps modernization (00:15:04) theory which was designed around (00:15:07) developed countries in Western Europe (00:15:09) and then applied to developing countries (00:15:12) in other parts of the world are really a (00:15:16) case of applying apples to oranges right (00:15:21) or in this case you're not even applying (00:15:23) a pistol or a napa sergeants it's fine (00:15:25) what we're doing here is applying apples (00:15:26) of patio furniture okay you're looking (00:15:30) for criteria that just doesn't exist (00:15:33) because it's in a different part of the (00:15:35) world and how are you expecting to find (00:15:38) a developed middle class in a country (00:15:42) that was a colony for over a hundred (00:15:44) years nice I mean visiting sort of silly (00:15:48) to look at one of the most developed (00:15:50) countries in the world Great Britain and (00:15:51) then applied act of Ghana and thinking (00:15:54) like oh my God look at what (00:15:55) God well in a motion Sherlock because (00:15:57) it's not you know any fun the other (00:16:02) problem that came about with this is (00:16:04) that the inconclusive he's inconclusive (00:16:08) studies also regarded there were these (00:16:11) other things I've got in the leg you (00:16:13) know silly annoying little things like (00:16:16) culture language religion you know all (00:16:23) sorts of things that the West either (00:16:26) change or put in the galleries of (00:16:29) museums and they no longer matter (00:16:32) separates the church and saves the (00:16:36) adoption of secular republicanism due (00:16:40) process a social contract a constitution (00:16:46) University all these things and so (00:16:52) critiques of modernization theory by the (00:16:54) seventies began to understand that maybe (00:16:58) it's not culture that gets in the way (00:17:00) but that culture does matter and yes (00:17:03) here's a you know here's a reality that (00:17:06) kind of bucked the trend of theories you (00:17:08) know who spend too much time in theory (00:17:09) you kind of forget how the rest of the (00:17:11) world works again go back to what's in (00:17:13) Iowa Kansas yes Virginia culture does (00:17:16) matter identities do that religion (00:17:20) matters languages matter animosities (00:17:22) matter legacies matter and sometimes (00:17:25) they matter more than democracy that (00:17:27) doesn't mean that they're (00:17:28) anti-democratic it just means that (00:17:30) there's things that are more important (00:17:32) right now (00:17:33) and if your idea of how does it country (00:17:36) become democratic effectively is the (00:17:38) more they're like Great Britain the more (00:17:40) they'll be democratic look lots of (00:17:43) blocks trying to get countries with new (00:17:44) nuts (00:17:44) hey so in any case is what I'm trying to (00:17:47) say it is is that culture is gold it's (00:17:50) not so much gonna get in the way the (00:17:52) culture is what has makes people (00:17:54) identify themselves with not only one is (00:17:56) going to abandon into ISM for the (00:17:58) maybe there's like one disaffected (00:18:00) Buddhist out there that's like do them (00:18:02) so sickness than at business I want (00:18:04) hardcore rational thinking see of me (00:18:06) okay rather than that time it happened (00:18:12) probably one of the best critiques about (00:18:16) modernization theories brand Theory (00:18:19) application was for the 1971 article by (00:18:25) Giovanni South Florida but coined the (00:18:29) phrase conceptual stretching I love this (00:18:33) term we can be a drive discipline (00:18:35) there's a lot about some really heinous (00:18:38) conceptual stretching Sartori postulates (00:18:43) is one of the biggest problems in (00:18:47) political science methodology in so many (00:18:50) words acceptable stretching is a result (00:18:54) of erroneous conclusions that are (00:18:57) reached by applying criteria licitum by (00:19:01) applying criteria that was proven for (00:19:05) one case but you take that criteria and (00:19:10) do now try to apply it to a whole bunch (00:19:13) of other cases and see if it works (00:19:15) now you might get lucky and it may be (00:19:18) work one of the times more often than (00:19:20) not you apply the criteria for one set (00:19:24) of cases to the rest of the world no (00:19:27) wonder it's not going to work okay (00:19:32) the problem with conceptual stretching (00:19:35) if I can be naked a little bit for user (00:19:38) you all try running a program designed (00:19:42) for a Mac on Windows and see if you (00:19:47) don't get the blue screen of death okay (00:19:53) try wanting something designed for one (00:19:56) operating system on does not work (00:20:02) conceptual stretching is making (00:20:05) conclusions based upon pre-existing data (00:20:09) but then applying those same criteria to (00:20:14) another second whether or not that data (00:20:17) exists does that make sense it does that (00:20:21) make sense (00:20:22) what Sartori is saying is that you are (00:20:24) going to the developing world looking (00:20:27) for modernization that you came up with (00:20:30) from the developed world that just (00:20:34) simply doesn't work okay and yeah (00:20:40) absolutely (00:20:41) take history into account you're gonna (00:20:43) you're gonna fly this criteria can you (00:20:45) apply the criteria of modernization from (00:20:48) these core countries maybe 200 300 years (00:20:53) ago you're expecting this is also (00:20:56) something that's still kind of resonates (00:20:57) with in the policy world today you know (00:20:59) every so often an authoritarian regime (00:21:01) is overthrown and we don't do this as (00:21:04) much as we used to be the surprised how (00:21:05) how recent we did you know the statue of (00:21:08) the dictator was toppled on Monday and (00:21:11) we're expecting full democratic (00:21:14) consolidation multi-party elections and (00:21:16) a green party to take part in political (00:21:19) consensus building mic right and if we (00:21:22) don't see that oh well you know the (00:21:24) Muslims just don't know anything about (00:21:25) democracy so I mean you'd be surprised (00:21:29) the crap that you can hear on TV and I'm (00:21:31) not just talking about Fox News and then (00:21:33) just once across porn okay then (00:21:37) the other didn't take into account is (00:21:39) that even those countries in the (00:21:40) developed world took very different (00:21:42) transition paths to get to where they (00:21:44) were (00:21:45) Great Britain took about six hundred (00:21:47) years to get to where it was by 1950 (00:21:52) Germany took a world war or two in order (00:21:57) to get to where it was and Japan took up (00:22:00) and tuck and bomb to to get to where it (00:22:03) was and let's also be honest 1959 (00:22:09) America was considered to be a developed (00:22:11) democracy but wasn't a consolidated (00:22:14) democracy was it a social democracy 1959 (00:22:19) 1959 you still had people who could get (00:22:22) lots of votes running for office on the (00:22:24) platform segregation now segregation (00:22:26) tomorrow segregation forever let's also (00:22:30) remember this is the 1950s there were (00:22:34) parts of this country where there were (00:22:36) signs that said once only so tell me how (00:22:41) the develop is your tomorrows are you (00:22:44) just looking at structural configuration (00:22:46) war that's they would compete in an easy (00:22:48) way (00:22:49) are you looking for more attitudinal (00:22:52) preferences to democracy plan in that (00:22:55) case those countries that you consider (00:22:58) to be democratic you can cut them in (00:22:59) half and take some of the smaller ones (00:23:02) as the ones that work but of course as I (00:23:06) said what the scientists tend to really (00:23:09) pull the bombs and interviews (00:23:10) that's Dannic I published something and (00:23:12) my name is next to us I will not have my (00:23:14) name is force they're gonna defend this (00:23:16) to the death so force modernization (00:23:20) theory takes a major major hits to the (00:23:23) face would be enough because the Vietnam (00:23:28) War more than is simply a tactical loss (00:23:31) for the United States was the first time (00:23:34) a country demonstrated to (00:23:36) medium that it did not want America's (00:23:40) style of Governors and it shows (00:23:43) something else again today what he the (00:23:47) Vietnam War was basically fast okay the (00:23:50) Vietnam War was to get the Vietnamese to (00:23:53) finally say okay we'll take marching (00:23:55) orders from Washington as opposed to (00:23:58) processor the speak of American (00:24:01) diplomatic interests in Viet anh kind of (00:24:04) rule us again 1970s was somewhat of a (00:24:07) weird time for us - it was horrible (00:24:09) disco was around you know the economy (00:24:12) was tanking New York was probably for (00:24:14) the living but you know very horrible (00:24:17) though you wouldn't want to live there (00:24:18) you say we're going to Time Square in (00:24:20) 1975 doing that point is is that by the (00:24:26) 1970s in the wake of the Vietnam era it (00:24:29) had now defenders of modernization (00:24:32) Theory have that would be twork their (00:24:34) theory into well it's not something that (00:24:37) culture gets in the way but there are (00:24:40) just societies America's parts of the (00:24:42) world are just simply incompatible (00:24:43) clocks these kind of retcon older well (00:24:47) would be an amusement one box you know (00:24:50) there are bunch of ice pygmies ball just (00:24:56) like those you know like the drinking (00:24:58) Russians and those you know start (00:25:01) animating that much and that kind of (00:25:04) reads a whole new level of science which (00:25:07) comes to conclude perhaps democracy is (00:25:10) exactly a global phenomena but perhaps (00:25:15) it is specific to the West (00:25:19) so to kind of you know sort of a little (00:25:23) bookmark okay so what are we been (00:25:24) talking about so far political scientist (00:25:28) may have the grudgingly admit okay all (00:25:33) right (00:25:33) modernization Theory may not be granted (00:25:36) but modernization Theory itself is still (00:25:38) good game may not be brave theory (00:25:41) because of the culture all right fine so (00:25:45) you know what (00:25:46) that's fine because the Western world (00:25:48) will be the beacon of democracy and (00:25:50) social contracts and all those types of (00:25:53) liberties and freedoms and the rest of (00:25:54) the world can basically go screw itself (00:25:57) this is what Huntington started to think (00:26:00) about civilizations flashing they didn't (00:26:04) really write this down formally for (00:26:07) another 20 years or so but the point is (00:26:11) is that you may recognize that the (00:26:14) theory doesn't work but you're still (00:26:17) going to come up with implausible (00:26:19) excuses okay so you're right for all the (00:26:23) wrong reasons yes you're right that (00:26:25) modernization Theory can't really (00:26:27) function in the brain but the (00:26:28) explanations are very very insular and (00:26:32) they're also self-serving what started (00:26:36) out has political Eurocentrism like the (00:26:39) democracy begin to see Europe and it (00:26:42) spreads out to the rest of the world (00:26:43) have it devolves into Western (00:26:47) ethnocentrism the West versus the rest (00:26:55) Huntington's a big practitioner of this (00:27:00) along with other contemporaries of his (00:27:03) own and even as recent as the years (00:27:10) following 9/11 you hear people in the (00:27:15) State Department in Washington Foreign (00:27:17) Office in London and elsewhere that have (00:27:20) absolutely no problem that they will not (00:27:22) even blink (00:27:23) would they effectively say on camera (00:27:26) something like well not everyone's going (00:27:28) to become democratic because their (00:27:30) culture either forbids it what makes it (00:27:32) impossible this long is incompatible (00:27:36) with Tom's (00:27:40) Orthodox Christianity is incompatible (00:27:42) with democracy Chinese culture is (00:27:45) incompatible with democracy and there (00:27:50) are a few countries that are non-western (00:27:51) that finally get the back hit South (00:27:53) Korea finally gets his act together the (00:27:55) 1980s why not because of South Korean (00:27:58) culture but because South Korea does (00:28:01) what Japan does (00:28:02) let's just go completely crazy consumer (00:28:05) Western knuckle (00:28:07) so whereas Japan kind of did its own (00:28:10) thing there's a whole new phenomenon in (00:28:12) South Korea today I'm sure something's (00:28:14) weird about it it's golden came up and (00:28:17) nothing says modernization like kpop and (00:28:22) you compare the music that's coming out (00:28:24) of North Korea for some North Korean (00:28:26) music I absolutely adore what a life (00:28:28) North Korean use it sounds like it's (00:28:31) perpetually 1943 Saudi dude they all (00:28:35) sound like they are meant they are (00:28:37) actually trained to sing and sound like (00:28:39) a Russian choir okay like you listen to (00:28:42) stuff that's coming out of North Koreans (00:28:43) anything I've got dislike World War 2 (00:28:46) era go this was published in 2015 (00:28:48) cluster (00:28:49) okay and then just across the DMZ hit (00:28:52) that bottom side okay so the way (00:28:56) modernization theory is still idea high (00:28:59) looking South Korea today now that (00:29:02) out that 1976 was best for and this was (00:29:06) inferior Korea in the 2018 inferior (00:29:11) Korea is now super Korea and best Korea (00:29:13) is joke Korea okay okay what the point (00:29:18) is the culture changes for these that's (00:29:21) what the CNN headlines are going to tell (00:29:24) right the culture changes become like (00:29:27) America become like the West get rid of (00:29:30) your tea ceremonies all those yes okay (00:29:33) and other element of this which I don't (00:29:40) want to spend too much time on now (00:29:42) because we'll get to it throughout the (00:29:44) semester I talked about a little bit (00:29:46) more in my politics involved (00:29:49) switches everything worth supporting 20 (00:29:51) teachers get in the hole is this (00:29:54) understanding among the defenders of (00:29:56) modernization theory that ok maybe paths (00:29:59) of development may be different here (00:30:01) here earplugs certain paths of (00:30:05) development created certain (00:30:06) institutional and historical (00:30:08) circumstances that meant one group of (00:30:10) people to reach democracy and other new (00:30:13) people to reach Clubhouse ah so what was (00:30:16) it that led to democracy ah well let's (00:30:19) see well there's things like Renaissance (00:30:22) Protestant Reformation scientific and (00:30:26) industrial revolutions this fits very (00:30:28) nicely with modernization theory because (00:30:30) these are the building blocks that (00:30:31) create a middle class Society of course (00:30:34) there have been to the free market of (00:30:35) having spin foundations on social (00:30:38) contracts separation eternity sacred (00:30:40) this begins this is the business because (00:30:42) this is the business of this right so (00:30:44) it's a very nice process tracing that (00:30:46) shows how the Western Europe kind of (00:30:49) started getting its act together (00:30:50) around 1500 and has been an Elfa ever (00:30:53) since and all of Western Europe (00:30:55) successful spin-offs Canada the United (00:30:58) States Australia and zoomed through that (00:31:00) points so it's a nice way of showing (00:31:05) that the West has been the best since (00:31:09) the Year 1500 roughly around 50 money (00:31:11) what we'll discuss are the rest of the (00:31:15) world didn't happen so ok your culture (00:31:18) is whatever it is but you never had (00:31:20) websites you never have scientific (00:31:22) revolution you never had an (00:31:24) Enlightenment (00:31:25) you never had separation for the state (00:31:27) so the sims 2 the same (00:31:30) and the Fareed Zakaria is a big big big (00:31:32) fan of Sam Huntington but lips it's and (00:31:36) others are now following this cultural (00:31:38) argument that says okay one set of (00:31:40) cultural patterns created democracy (00:31:42) while other things created something (00:31:45) else okay taking us this is where I step (00:31:50) into the Equality to apply some teaching (00:31:51) pain class I'm gonna go out on a limb (00:31:54) here and say that's all fighting good (00:31:56) based on this evidence that never really (00:31:59) was a great team I'm just going to come (00:32:01) flat items in the search for a grand (00:32:03) theory is elusive because there cannot (00:32:07) be a great and there never was a grand (00:32:10) theory we tried this modernization and (00:32:14) it maybe worked for a little bit but (00:32:16) after a while when your answers are (00:32:19) coming back inconclusive you have to (00:32:21) kind of think big the formula doesn't (00:32:22) entirely look you just can't shove a (00:32:26) round peg into a square hole and think (00:32:29) it is going to work okay and toss no (00:32:32) one's gonna follow the path in the APS (00:32:34) are the other thing to take into account (00:32:37) and this is a little bit more pragmatic (00:32:39) what we regarded as great in theory was (00:32:43) somewhat premature because it was based (00:32:46) on only a small handful out of the (00:32:49) advanced industrialized countries and (00:32:52) this somewhat bowls him to call (00:32:55) something grand theory when they're only (00:32:57) applying it to the developed areas of (00:33:00) Europe you know you send the grad (00:33:02) students out into the world and it kind (00:33:03) of works well then you can call it (00:33:05) random theory it's very Western centric (00:33:09) and it also precludes and presupposes (00:33:13) and biases and prejudices dozens of (00:33:17) experiments (00:33:17) dozens of observations the other problem (00:33:22) is that our criterion for modernization (00:33:27) was based upon a set of axioms and (00:33:30) datasets that you know in their own (00:33:33) world in their own mindset (00:33:35) right our fine was nothing wrong that (00:33:38) lets said it's not a it was not you know (00:33:41) he wasn't he was a well-respected (00:33:42) political scientist and as I said (00:33:45) modernization theory we have started (00:33:48) dozens and dozens of other degrees of (00:33:50) research and if you follow this logic (00:33:51) guess it makes absolute sense right (00:33:53) something wrong with this here it lips (00:33:56) it was the one that tried to make you (00:33:57) bring theory many cases lymphocytes name (00:34:00) is somehow attached resulting less (00:34:02) because you know around the wrong type (00:34:03) thing but problem is it's that these (00:34:07) criteria that it's a real injury (00:34:09) especially if they're looking for all (00:34:11) the sorts of specific things that if you (00:34:14) argue our product of certain historical (00:34:17) circumstances and then why are you (00:34:19) applying this criteria to the world that (00:34:21) you know it didn't exist in other places (00:34:23) I mean and what they possess well (00:34:25) following but there's a lot going to (00:34:27) have to stop the campus I go with it (00:34:29) this makes sense of my head but that (00:34:30) doesn't mean that it makes sense for us (00:34:34) and here's the other thing you got all (00:34:37) sort of them there's a 50s 60s what's (00:34:41) going on in the world (00:34:44) hold on alone Oh for we have an agenda (00:34:50) to push we have a product set what's the (00:34:54) prize maka see that's a pretty goodness (00:34:58) okay that's the candy coating chef (00:35:01) that's it's inside (00:35:02) capitalism yeah capitalism so it's a (00:35:07) city area again today what won the Cold (00:35:10) War Thomas Jefferson or Adams miss (00:35:13) Madison Thomas Jefferson kind of got (00:35:17) second place saying you participation (00:35:19) trophies at mistake looking for that you (00:35:22) got to also remember what variation of (00:35:23) car parks we're going out we don't have (00:35:25) the political power box we don't have (00:35:27) economical (00:35:29) those always enters and talk more and if (00:35:36) you read some of these earlier scholarly (00:35:38) germs they have a very obvious agenda (00:35:44) sensitive like we're going out into the (00:35:47) world as variable a noise sales the (00:35:49) whole was what this excuse me or do we (00:35:53) do sometimes because you know who is (00:35:55) right behind us or who just came to the (00:35:58) door and prophetic elect to know about (00:36:01) this before for ministers (00:36:03) okay well you think loosen up is sitting (00:36:05) home doing nothing you know you heard of (00:36:07) this guy called che guevara right you (00:36:09) know this guy called Fidel Castro's okay (00:36:12) communism was pretty you know attractive (00:36:15) okay especially in the post-colonial (00:36:18) world (00:36:19) so the idea here was okay what cookies (00:36:22) are gonna work which ones can we do it - (00:36:23) let's let me work with you know football (00:36:24) gear football dear Goti got it (00:36:26) especially after especially after the (00:36:28) Bay of Pigs invasion section after (00:36:29) Castro went and took Cuba comics and the (00:36:34) idea is okay we began to live is (00:36:35) happening so we have an agenda Bush so (00:36:37) it's natural that we're going to stick (00:36:39) with our theory because again one other (00:36:42) thing that was taking place not exactly (00:36:45) and again this very normative stuff very (00:36:48) important one thing for the academics (00:36:51) argue about democracies other things for (00:36:53) the newspaper (00:36:54) the journalists to argue the world wants (00:36:56) amok receive more than comedies that (00:36:59) remember that okay bad was sold this (00:37:02) year ago that bonds the country didn't (00:37:06) want democracy wasn't that we lose sale (00:37:10) it's that they're too dumb to know what (00:37:13) to do this they don't know what to do (00:37:17) they don't know what's in their best (00:37:18) interests so you know what let's just (00:37:20) not get excited cuz they don't need (00:37:21) rulings hey let them ruin commies let (00:37:25) them not really be modest (00:37:26) this was placed within a normative bias (00:37:29) of self-promotion this is a war right (00:37:32) so that regard we need to constantly (00:37:35) remind ourselves that the pursuit of (00:37:37) brain theory has much more than just an (00:37:40) academic agenda okay but what can you do (00:37:44) speaking of old war so they left (00:37:47) what is it female as one enhanced well (00:37:52) this is where we kind of go for the rest (00:37:55) of the semester and this is where I kind (00:38:00) of critique some of the foundations of (00:38:05) blood clots even though I have a PhD (00:38:08) then I love you sometimes I'm really (00:38:12) tired of detectives first thing that we (00:38:15) need to do probably make peace with the (00:38:18) fact that we're not really as honest it (00:38:24) least not in the classical understanding (00:38:27) you know you have the Natural Sciences (00:38:30) to located the decrepit buildings on (00:38:33) lives on campus and yet social sciences (00:38:36) we're looking to decrepit buildings on (00:38:37) Douglas you have the history department (00:38:40) is located relatively might fill in a (00:38:42) couple but the big thing about social (00:38:45) science is among and political science (00:38:47) was probably like the one that's the (00:38:49) closest among their history sociology (00:38:52) and anthropology and psychology Brenner (00:38:55) political science within the world (00:38:57) speed to these sites the natural (00:38:59) scientists will always land for this is (00:39:00) like that's a particle helical science (00:39:03) it's not you're making stuff up to (00:39:05) school and the historians of the (00:39:08) anthropologists and the sociologists the (00:39:11) psychologists that you know get their (00:39:13) wisdom from suckers or whatever it is (00:39:15) are looking at and you know positive (00:39:17) bias no and they're looking at political (00:39:19) scientists they basically save your (00:39:20) ways or totally out of life (00:39:22) no mellow house and in order to get (00:39:28) seriously what science is a useful (00:39:32) discipline but we oftentimes take the (00:39:36) science aspect more seriously than than (00:39:40) the political empirical modeling can (00:39:43) certainly be practice no there's no (00:39:45) question about okay and you can draw (00:39:48) inferences based upon observable data (00:39:50) all fine good the first thing we have to (00:39:54) recognize that those we might receive (00:39:55) are the same those who countries are the (00:39:58) same you know we might be able to come (00:40:00) up with let's say regional mid-level (00:40:03) theories and we might be able to draw (00:40:06) some kind of broad-based theory about (00:40:10) states and societies of Western Europe (00:40:13) or southern Europe on Eastern Europe we (00:40:17) might be able to draw inferences about (00:40:18) States in the Middle East and Latin (00:40:20) America and that's all fine and good (00:40:22) it's certainly plausible to find (00:40:25) comparable evidence between development (00:40:27) of let's say Serbia and Romania or Chile (00:40:31) and Argentina or France and Germany know (00:40:35) India and Pakistan but you have to take (00:40:42) these regional differences into account (00:40:44) you have to take this Oracle (00:40:46) circumstance and to look I'm not saying (00:40:49) that I'm a historical fatalist what (00:40:52) happened six hundred years ago screws (00:40:53) your benefits you (00:40:54) is all and there are things that do (00:40:57) matter there are things that do factor (00:40:59) in to these equations and so some will (00:41:05) desimilus a what will we need greater (00:41:07) regression analysis we need more (00:41:09) rigorous statistics we need more of (00:41:12) mathematical quantification and I just (00:41:16) kind of sit there in the room and I say (00:41:18) you know what you need to do is learn (00:41:20) out I don't know or understand or better (00:41:28) yet not just learn Arabic and Spanish (00:41:30) through those epic learn the slam learn (00:41:34) the globins (00:41:36) because that's what gets you to (00:41:39) understand what people need and what we (00:41:41) say okay some argue that we need more (00:41:46) regression some our regression analysis (00:41:48) of your own we need more statistical (00:41:50) analysis I think we should just be (00:41:51) better the stories I think we should (00:41:54) take anthropology into account sociology (00:42:02) you know and so that that Minds there is (00:42:06) this thing within the political science (00:42:08) discipline between small and studies and (00:42:11) large hammer small and studies are your (00:42:15) qualitative things that's where the (00:42:17) history comes in that's where the slide (00:42:19) comes in that's where understanding what (00:42:22) people mean when they say what they do (00:42:24) thank and well that's not going to get (00:42:28) you the key to all of your answers it's (00:42:31) going to help you understand that (00:42:32) culture and that society I think a (00:42:34) little different there's also some what (00:42:38) you can do by kind of expanding these (00:42:43) things into ones and zeros like I'm not (00:42:46) knocking the quantitative subs (00:42:47) quantitative is are you know who people (00:42:50) Thank You prison at one point probably (00:42:52) in a quantitative sense place anyone (00:42:55) excites and they'll probably tell you (00:42:57) that people like me or they don't they (00:42:58) don't do Agence again it's a turf war (00:43:02) but my point is if great theory doesn't (00:43:06) work and modernization Theory can only (00:43:09) take us so far that brings us back to (00:43:12) the question that many of these students (00:43:14) were sent out into the world to look for (00:43:16) and that is can any country in the world (00:43:19) become democratic the pre-emptive answer (00:43:23) to that using qualitative studies is yes (00:43:27) any country any country (00:43:30) Ljuba yes I can understand yes your rock (00:43:36) yes (00:43:37) Turkey yes cuz it's really not that bad (00:43:41) North Korea there's enough money funding (00:43:46) time and alcohol I would come up with an (00:43:51) absolutely there's absolutely no country (00:43:55) in the world today that is somehow (00:43:58) screwed out of blocks apples all (00:44:01) supported visitors (00:44:02) no society in the world today that is (00:44:05) just by proxy Democrat so that's kind of (00:44:12) you know where we're going to go in this (00:44:17) place