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Title: The Last 6 Decades of AI — and What Comes Next | Ray Kurzweil | TED
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so we've heard a lot about artificial
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intelligence uh I've actually been
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involved with AI for 61 years which is a
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record um and we've heard a lot about
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what people think about AI today uh
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so tried to figure out what did we think
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about artificial intelligence 61 years
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ago so first of all people ask well what
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are you into I'd say artificial
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intelligence and they say what's that so
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no one was really aware of it um the PE
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I joined in
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1962 1956 was the conference where
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artificial intelligence got its name so
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the the views were quite
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different uh people who were in computer
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science had heard of artificial
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intelligence most people were quite
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skeptical they thought it would never
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happen or if they thought it would
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happen maybe it would happen in a
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century or several centuries uh but the
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people that actually came to that
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Dartmouth conference in
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1956 they were quite optimistic some of
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them including Minsky thought it would
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take like one semester to
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reach uh to reach uh the level of
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intelligence that humans had
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um and in fact that that led to our
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first argument he was my mentor for 50
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years uh but we argued about that cuz I
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I thought it would take decades but we
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would see it within our
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lifetime so we we are the only species
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that actually creates tools that
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enhances our intelligence I mean I'll
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bet almost everybody has one of these
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that makes us more intelligent this
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connects to the cloud gets more
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intelligent every year uh basically the
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singularity is going to bring that into
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our minds we're going to become smarter
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and there's two different things we have
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in our anatomy that enable us to do that
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one is our brain but we're not the only
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species that has a brain or even a
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comparable brain elephants and whales
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actually have a brain that's larger than
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us but there's another aspect of their
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Anatomy that they don't have and that no
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one else has aside from humans which is
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our
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thumb so I can look at a tree and I can
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imagine GE I could take those poles and
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create a tool and then I can actually do
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it now monkeys if you look at them and
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have a thumb but it doesn't really work
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very well it's actually an inch down
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they they can grab things very
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uh without much
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force uh they can create a first
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generation of tools uh but they can't
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use that tool to create another set of
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tools
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so uh they really can't create a whole
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set of tools that uh will enhance their
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intelligence we're the only species that
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does that and that's what artificial
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intelligence is doing from the very
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first homonid that uh created a very
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primitive tool to Gemini and gp4 today
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uh we create tools that make it
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smarter
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and so I've been actually monitoring uh
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the growth of
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computation uh uh which is right here I
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spent like 45 years on
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this uh and as you go up the chart it
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represents exponential growth uh you
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might think that someone was in charge
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of this gee we've done this much it's in
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a straight line let's get our next
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computer to be right here but no one was
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aware of it no one even knew that this
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was happening for the first 40 years uh
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I discovered this 45 years
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ago uh I had various reasons to feel it
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would continue at this pace in
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1939 uh that represents
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0.007 calculations per second per
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constant dollar at the upper right hand
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corner you've got uh a Google computer
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which was uh 130 billion calculations
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per second and recently Nvidia just came
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out with a chip which is half a trillion
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calculations per second so this little
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chart
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represents a growth of 75 quadrillion
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fold increase that's why we didn't have
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large language models in
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1939 or even three years ago we did have
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something called large language models
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they didn't work very well 3 years ago
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began to work two years ago we've seen a
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tremendous progress that's happened in
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the last two
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years uh in 1999
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I was asked to make a prediction of when
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would we see AGI artificial general
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intelligence and so I I figured that
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this chart would continue which it has
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and I figured we'd need about a trillion
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calculations per second uh to do AGI so
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I estimated
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2029 um
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that was
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met uh with a lot of skepticism M uh
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Stanford had actually been monitoring my
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predictions they called an International
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Conference to talk about my prediction
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and hundreds of AI scientists came from
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around the
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world um and they agreed that that it
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would happen we would achieve AGI but
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not within 30 years the estimate was 100
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years and I've talked actually some of
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the people who were there who said 100
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years then and they're basically
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agreeing it's going to happen very soon
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musk says it's going to happen in 2
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years it's not an unreasonable position
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other people saying three or four years
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I'm sticking with five years but uh it
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could happen soon but it's everybody
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agrees now uh AGI very
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soon so I have another book coming out
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the singularity is
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nearer and I've got about 50 graphs in
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there uh
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I can't explain it right now but if you
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talk to me later I can explain these
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charts but it basically shows uh that a
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that artificial intelligence is going to
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take over
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everything um the the amount
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of the amount of money that we make
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right now is 10 times greater in
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constant dollars than it was 100 years
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ago we were very very poor 100 years ago
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there was no government programs uh so
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we're much richer than we were then
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and the movement not only computation
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but every single
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technology uh is done by creating taking
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the latest thing we've created and
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making the next one we take the latest
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chip and we use that to create the next
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one
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um we have greater wealth as I said that
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leads to better education leads to
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better doctors leads leads to healthy
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people leads to more Global wealth all
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of these things work together AI
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supercharges
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everything so I could talk about each
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thing is being actually revolutionized I
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think the most interesting thing is
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actually medicine there are a lot of
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people who are experts in AI who are
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against what's happening and they're
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very nervous about it and they think
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it's going to wipe us out um but people
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tend to get diseases which will which
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are threatening to them uh and what's
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going to happen people are going to get
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diseases and AI is going to come up with
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a cure uh very soon uh which will lead
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to a great deal of
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appreciation
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um people say that AI is not creative
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it's very creative you can actually put
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together possibilities that might work
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for example madna was trying to create
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their covid vaccine they actually put
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together a list of different mRNA
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sequences now what would we do in the
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past someone would come in and say well
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okay there's several billion let's try
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this one or maybe they pick three you
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can't
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uh do a clinical test on billions of
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different possibilities but that's
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exactly what they did by simulating the
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reaction and that took two days so in
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two days I created the medona
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vaccine uh and that is still on the
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market it it's been the best vaccine it
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was done in two two days and we're going
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to do that with every other thing
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there's some very promising cancer cures
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that are out there which AI produced uh
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they're looking very promising uh the
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next years is going to be remarkable for
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medicine we had 190,000 proteins done by
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people uh in
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2022 2023 Alpha fold 2 did 200 million
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basically Ally every protein and how
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they
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fold uh every Protein that's used in
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humans and and every other species on
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Earth uh done in a few months uh we're
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going to be able to go through uh cures
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for diseases at the same
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rate
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so we're going to simulate trials
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digitally uh it'll be much safer it'll
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be a million times
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faster um
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and by the end of this decade as we go
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into the 2030s we're going to achieve a
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new
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Milestone it's called Longevity escape
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velocity let me say that again because
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you're going to be hearing a lot about
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that longevity escape velocity right now
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you go through a year and you use up a
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year of your
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longevity however scientific progress is
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also progressing which is actually
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bringing us back it's giving us cures
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for diseases new forms of treatment so
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right now you're getting back about four
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months so you lose a year you get back
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four months or you're losing eight
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months however the scientific progress
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is on and exponential it's going to get
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faster and faster and as we get to the
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early 2030s let say between 2029 and
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2035 depending on how diligent you are
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uh you're going to get back a full year
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so you lose a year you get back a year
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as we actually go past that point you'll
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actually get back uh more than a year
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and you'll go backwards in time uh which
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would be cool
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um now some people are concerned we're
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going to run out of
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resources uh and actually if we just
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went ahead and didn't make any new
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resources we would run out of resources
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like energy for example uh but it's not
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happening in a
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vacuum uh AI is revolutionizing
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everything for example we only have to
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connect um one part in
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10,000 of the sunlight that falls on the
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earth to meet all of our energy needs
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it's plenty of Headroom uh and that's
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growing exponentially and we'll achieve
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that within 10 years and that's also
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growing
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exponentially
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so we will have plenty of
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resources
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um and
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when we get to the 2030s Nanobots will
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connect our brains to the cloud uh just
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the way your phone does it'll expand
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intelligence a millionfold by
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2045 that is the
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singularity we will be
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funnier uh
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sexier smarter more creative free from
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biological limitations will be able to
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choose
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our
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appearance we'll be able to do things we
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can't do today like visualize objects in
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11 Dimensions we can speak all languages
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we'll be able to expand Consciousness in
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ways we can barely imagine uh we will
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experience richer culture with our extra
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years so I've recently become a
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grandfather I'm very much looking
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forward to that spending more time with
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family friends loving and being being
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loved all enhanced by AI I believe this
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gives life its greatest meaning thank
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you very much
